21 February, 2009

Confessions.

When I was in Cambodia, I read lots of books about Thailand (and, when in 'Nam, I read a lot of books about 'Bodia). One of them was Confessions of A Bangkok Private Eye.

This is a collection of ten or so cases, which largely feature the client (Western man) meeting him in a coffee shop, asking him to find out whether his girlfriend/fiance (Thai bar girl, always originally from the provinces) is cheating on him.

The answer is almost certainly "YES!"



On special offer in Pnom Penh (photocopied version only)


From hundreds of cases, the author decides that the stereotypical Western man/Thai bar girl relationshiop is doomed before it has even started due to:

*** the age gap (man is usually >40 years old)

*** the culture gap (her English is usually tailored to the needs of her trade - "hello you like me, ok?", he can't speak any Thai)

*** the fact that she's earning money by dancing around a silver pole and whoring


Usually the bar girl has several "patrons" who all think that they are the one. They send her a monthly "salary" in order to get her out of bar-work, and other men. Not only that, but she also typically will continue to engage in the same activities she did before she met her knight in silver-hairstyle/ shining pate.

One case involved a ladyboy, who a UK accountant mistook for a girl. S/he insisted on no sex before marriage. Part of the deal was that the chap would fork over some money as a dowry. The ladyboy was going to use it to pay for the op. If it wasn't for the detective, the poor guy may never have found out.

So, given the odds, why do these men do it?



Buyer beware

The answer to this question is the same answer as one of the many psychological falacies when dealing with the market - the endownment effect.

The typical reaction of the client, when presented with evidence of cheating, is "I want more evidence", and "...but my girl is different".

How is she different? Did you not pick her up in a bargirl-bar? Did you not pay her for nocturnal services? This reaction of denial - "Give me more evidence" is phase one of the Kubler-Ross greif process: Denial, Anger, Bargaining, Depression, Acceptance.

Markets also behave like this. In the market, holding a losing position and refusing to believe that the market is moving against you is denial - "this is a temporary move".

Secondly, and slightly weirdly, in most cases the cheated-on client (and you've gotta think what were they thinking giving a full-time whore a salary), after being faced with damning evidence of the cheating, does not cut their losses, as you may expect. (In the market you don't really get final evidence until you're blown up, but even then you could be stuck in denial mode, so the analogy here is weak, due to the continous nature of the market vs. the descrete event of the whoring revelation).

The middle-aged lover, then has an urge to confront the girl with the evidence, or, better yet, walk in on her getting friendly with her Thai boyfriend/husband. This is the Anger stage. And most clients of the author went through it.

Shortly after this they mostly went off to weep/lick wounds in some dark corner, the next stage being bargaining "I only lost X $k", depression, then acceptance.

Moral of the story:

In order to not lose more money than you need to in the market - stop getting emotional. Don't marry a ladyboy.

Third Reading of Ben Graham

What was new this time?

In order to make money in the market, you need both to be right and the market to be wrong.

Wise.



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20 February, 2009

Rough Crossing.

Is the process of a boatfull of holidaymakers getting shocked by a rough sea similar to a turbulent market?


Oh no.

Oh no.

From Koh Samui to Koh Tao ("Turtle Island"), I had to take the two-tier boat carrying c. 200 people. The sun was out and the sea air was fresh. There was the usual impatience to get on at the pier, and a general mood of excitement prevailed during boarding and manouvering of the boat out of the quayside.

Hungover young men/boys were sleeping on top of bags, and each other, on the deck. Fresh-faced travellers swapping stories in that familiar routine - how much does it cost, how long it take to get to Bangkok, or to the next island, did you like Chiang Mai, is Cambodia safe, how much is the plane ticket? A local Thai was holding a well-behaved rust-coloured chicken, wrapped in a hotel towel.

We depart, the bus-like vessel ploughing through modest wavelets. Conditions progressively roughen, and the mood livens up further. A roller-coaster type squeal spreads from the front of the boat backwards.




Are we paying for this?

The waves are getting more powerful. We are heading into the wind. The squeals of enjoyment are getting higher pitched, with a trace of horror in some girls’ raised voices.

A bronzed, fleshy Swede is laughing progressively harder at her skinny friend's comic genius, even as skinny friend is looking increasingly pale. The hungover layabouts start to stir.

Now the waves start becoming well-defined, rolling swells followed by leisurely-sweeping valleys. Pitch, roll, and yaw are all well-represented, with the bow of the boat nodding forwards, then swaying drunkenly to the right, now with increasing velocity, now smashing into the base of the valleys. Swedish girl is now laughting self-consciously, looking around, realising that everyone else has gone quiet, skinny friend, most others are looking down into the thick blue-painted deck.













You need to show me some respect.

Thai chicken guy looks unfazed. As does chicken. I mentally perform a safety audit of the boat - not good. Not good safety features, I decide. And not good that I'm thinking this way. Whats the worst scenario? Leave the bags, hang onto the passport. The sea is warm here. But the waves are looking more and more hostile.

We are not sea-sawing anymore. The boat is now climbing like a timber truck up a steep hill. Every time the hull climbs another crest and swoons head-first we feel closer and closer to the water. The white foam spray from the impact ricochets around the bodies of the young men now standing up, trying to avoid the vomit being distributed across the deck with the force of a fire hose. The funfair amusement park screams of entertainment and surprise coming from the passengers below deck are now low groans, only coming out when we have a yet-steeper pitch or more gut-wrenching roll.

The fat girl shuts up, looking pale. She leans over the side. When will it be over? Scanning ahead we can't see any sign of land. But, peering out there we can see that the sea is mercilessly, remarkably, getting worse. Just a little further ahead the waves are taking on a life of their own. The groans are replaced by silence. There is a feeling that this is a bad sign. We are now nothing but a container full of vomiting, clinging, watch-glancing bags of fear. Only the chicken pokes its head around in curiosity. The silence is all the more damning for the contrast with our former giggling selves.















I knew this would happen

Yes, we are defeated.

Is the sea calming down a fraction, or are we just getting used to the violence of this bucking horse? No one is looking up to check anyway.

The waves only start to deminish when we are close enough to the island to make out individuals on the pier. But the chatter doesn't yet return - except for the fat Swedish girl - until it is clear we are not going over, then everyone feels they need to utter some words of relief. Back we are to conversations about how to get to Bangkok, how much did that hotel cost.


Moral of the story?

Buy when the fat girl starts to chat again.


Some Numbers




According to local rag Samui Express, (candidate for least-serious newspaper of the year) and my own sleuthing:

*** In Bang Por (N Samui, OK place), you have have a 1-2 bed house, not far from the beach, for Bt 3 - 5M (60-100kGBP), including land, all mod cons.

*** In Chaweng (busy tourist ghetto), land prices are as high as 80M Bt per rai. 1 rai = 1,600m2. That's 1,000GBP/m2. This compares with 13,800GBP/m2 in prime central London, and 30,000GBP/m2 in Monte Carlo.

*** Purchasing power of foreign investors has fallen 20-50%, according to a local estate agent.

Tourism

*** UPDATE MAR 09: ***
BREAKING NEWS.....Child beggars back with a vengeance: SHABBY children selling flower garlands in tourist areas are back, it has been reported.
******************************

Notes from the Samui Express (local English language newspaper for Koh Samui, tourist ghetto extraordinaire), January Edition:

*** Oil exploration bid off Koh Tao (Island next to Koh Samui) nixed. This was Soco Exploration.

*** Firms join hands to stir tourism: discounts of 30-50% on Samui, Phuket (nearby tourist island), Krabi for high season (Dec-Feb). 500 members of the Thai Hotels Association offer 2 nights for 1. I checked out this "special offer" - turns out to be not that special. Available on a single Tuesday, need to book well in advance etc.

*** Fewer tourists turn up at last Full Moon Party (hippy shroom-fest sterilised into just another beach party). 30-40% fewer. Normally 40,000 tourists in Koh Phangan for the FMP (wow! didn't seem so much when I was there a few yrs ago). 50% decline in local tourist arrivals. Normally Koh Phangan earns 600M Bhat, over the period, implying GBP250/tourist.

*** Boat explodes in Bang Rak

*** Fisher drowns at Laemset Beach

*** Tourists collar four bisexual beach thieves in Phangan

*** String of gold robberies in Surat

*** 5M Baht marijuana seized in Chumphon